This paper revised the model of foreign trade multiplier, and estimated the time-varying marginal propensity to import and foreign trade multiplier in China though the time-varying parameters model. 本文基于对传统对外贸易乘数的适当修正,利用变参数模型估计了我国随时间变化的边际进口倾向和对外贸易乘数。
The marginal propensity to import, in other words, is a "leakage" from the expenditure stream. 换言之,边际进口倾向是支出流量中的一个漏出量。
Foreign trade promoting effect on economy development depends on foreign trade multiplier. Foreign trade multiplier is closely related to marginal propensity to consume, marginal propensity to import, marginal tax rate, marginal propensity to government expenditure, and so on. 对外贸易对国民经济的促进作用与对外贸易乘数的大小有关,对外贸易乘数的大小与边际消费倾向、边际税率、边际投资倾向、边际政府购买支出倾向和边际进口倾向等经济参数有关。
These will make the fiscal policy of crowding out effect slighter. At the same time, so far, there has been no real financial crisis in China. In this case, the marginal propensity to import during the financial crisis is increasing. 同时,迄今为止,我国没有发生真正的金融危机,在这种情况下,金融危机时期边际进口倾向是增加的。
The formula suggests that the optimal size of foreign exchange reserves is relevant to the standard deviation of export, the opportunity cost of holding foreign exchange reserves by government, the marginal propensity to import, the output-export ratio and so on. 模型表明,最优的外汇储备规模与出口的标准差、政府持有外汇储备的机会成本、边际进口倾向、产出对出口的反应系数等因素相关。